Could the Saturn have lived on?

By Dan Driver

The Saturn was a commercial failure, even the most hardened Sega Saturn fans (such as myself) know this, and have been at peace with it for decades.

However, if you step away from the widely accepted narrative, the outlook for the Saturn, to a point, was not as bleak as many would like to think. Seeing how fellow commercial failures in the console space have fared since, and doing some research on how the Saturn sold during its lifetime, I feel I have some thoughts on the question:

Could the Saturn have survived a few years longer?

Let’s be realistic from the start; this is not a “could the Saturn have won the console war” piece. The answer to that, is a reaounding no, at no point post 1996 was the Saturn in a position to outsell PS1 worldwide, or perhaps even the N64. But in my opinion it could well have lived on past 1999 as its rivals did.

The journey starts with the Saturns launch in the West in 1995. In Japan the console was selling well, however the US launch is infamous for being regarded one of the most botched console releases of all time, with a surprise E3 announcement declaring that the Saturn was on sale there and then.

But this is again where the narrative is not as it seems. Was the launch a disaster? From a PR perspective, yes, especially the alienation of certain retail stores in the US. But from a sales perspective, the Saturn was an immediate sellout and would continue to be sold out until the official launch in September.

In those fledgling months the only thing stopping the Saturn from selling more was Sega’s inability to manufacture enough to meet demand, something they struggled with in both the West and Japan.

Of course, come September, the Playstation’s availability and pre-order nunbers meant that it trumped the total Saturn units sold to that point in its first day on sale. From that point on, the Saturn was behind and would never recover.

The Playstation was outselling the Saturn by around two to one, and so it would remain through 1995 and 1996. This meant that Sega was losing market share, and despite a bump in sales volumes in 1996 due to a price drop, the writing was seemingly on the wall.

But this is where I’d like to pause on the 90’s, and move into the 2000’s. There are three consoles from all three current console manufacturers that have fought back from situations as dire or arguably worse than this.

Being outsold by Sony 2:1 and by a later released Nintendo console should sound familiar to Xbox fans. This has been the fate of the Xbox One. There are many parallels with the Saturn; worse performing 3rd party games, a beleaguered launch and a loss of goodwill.

But as we all know, the Xbox One stayed in the fight, even when it had no chance of winning. It sold under half of its rival, the PS4, yet that still meant it netted it a massive 49 million units sold.

Could the Saturn have maintained that momentum? Unlike Xbox One, the Saturn had a constant stream of first party exclusives that its rivals could only dream of, surely that would have been enough to capture the attention of the masses long enough for it to survive. Had it sold at the same ratio to its Playstation rival as Microsofts console did, it would have sold over 40 million, which by some estimates would have made it Segas best selling system. Its not likely (especially as the N64 itself sold only half of that) but better console sales and software sellthrough would have been possible.

Sony too, have been outsold by such ratios in the US and UK. The Playstation 3 was something of a disaster at first, not only did the Xbox 360 have a huge headstart, but it was outselling it handily.

The PS3 and Saturn are also similar bedfellows. Both were hard to develop for which also meant 3rd party titles performed worse, both were priced highly from a consumer standpoint and were sold at a crippling loss.

The PS3 eventually overcame its worldwide deficit to the 360 despite remaining behind in the UK and US regions. Sega and the Saturn were not positioned well enough for this sort of comeback, but given the consoles strong sales in Japan, it suggests that perhaps the Saturn could have stayed in the fight, maybe, like the PS3, it was a hardware revision and a few big games away from a fightback.

And then we have the Wii U, one of the biggest commercial flops of any mainstream system. Selling less than a tenth of what its predecessor had was a catastrophe for Nintendo, and no other console maker has seen its home console market share plummet to such so drastically levels so quickly.

Yet Nintendo held the line. For five years, it was Nintendo’s only home console. For five years Nintendo didn’t press the panic button, didn’t cease production, didn’t reduce its RRP substantially and carried on developing and releasing excellent first party software for it.

It still only sold a little more than the Saturn itself, but there were two key benefits in this approach. Firstly Wii U owners were not abandoned by a short lived console, and secondly that good will transferred over to the Nintendo Switch, a console which is still selling like hotcakes nearly four years later.

So, could the Saturn have lived on? It’s entirely possible based on this evidence.

In early 1997 the Saturn was enjoying a year on year increase in sales in the US and UK, despite being sold by over 2:1 by the Playstation and 4:1 by the N64.

What’s interesting is that Sega of America’s Ted Hoff was bullish of the N64’s chances, stating that the console lacked software, a criticism that is still attributed to the console today.

I bring this up not to throw shade on the N64, but because this was a pivotal reason for sales slowing for that platform just a few months later, and eventually falling well behind the Playstation.

And here’s the thing, by contrast the Saturn library was fantastically strong, particularly in Japan where the console was still selling well. 1997 saw great games in every genre seeing releases, two new Sonic branded titles and the launch of the 4MB RAM cart in Japan ushering a era of sublime Capcom ports.

If it really is all about the exclusive games, then the Saturn had them in spades, and it stands to reason that the consoles library could have maintained interest, whilst it could have been one smash hit and marketing push away from another increase in sales.

However, in light of reduced market share and being outsold by the competition, Sega were already, and understandably, looking ahead to the Saturns replacement. What wasn’t understandable was what came next.

Just two years on from E3 1995, Sega dropped an even bigger clanger at the 1997 version of the same show. Bernie Stoler infamously said that “The Saturn is not our future”.

This was huge. I remember having demos of games like Re-Loaded and Fighting Force on Saturn courtesy of Saturn Power magazine, two games that were abandoned shortly after this statement. And that is just two. Around the globe 3rd parties abandoned ship after this statement, stores began dedicating less floor space to the console and the increases in units sold seen beforehand reversed as Segas marketshare all but evaporated.

Were it not for Bernies blooper, theres every chance the Saturn could have continued to sell. Especially if you look at what could have been.

1998 saw huge releases for the Saturn, from The House of the Dead to Panzer Dragoon Saga, from Burning Rangers to Shining Force 3. Any of these could have been tentpole releases for the system, yet all crept out with no marketing and little fanfare in low numbers that make them a scarcity today.

Panzer Dragoon Saga is one of the most baffling. A huge 3D fully voiced RPG that looked stunning and delivered an RPG experience hitherto unrivalled on console, this was something that Final Fantasy wouldn’t attempt until the PS2 era. If it had some hype around it, some marketing around what a marvel it was, if the Saturn was still being supported and in production, it really could have sold some units.

The criminally untapped Japanese market too could have helped the Saturn live beyond the life it was handed in the West. X-men vs Street Fighter was being readied for a Western release, but Sega pulled the plug. Seeing that game in action alone made many Saturn owners turn to imports, including myself. That being the case this crossover of two huge franchises could have drawn more to the system, especially as the game was technically impossible on both the PS1 and N64, had it been released in the West as originally planned.

Then there were the two other Shining Force 3 scenarios, RPG hit Grandia, Sakura Wars, Lunar 2, two more Bomberman games, Radiant Silvergun, Castlevania Symphony of the Night, Princess Crown, Baroque, Policenauts and Silhouette Mirage to name but a handful.

Then consider the library had we got the 4MB RAM cart in the West, with Vampire Savior, Marvel Super Heroes vs Street Fighter, Metal Slug, two more King of Fighters games, Cyberbots and a number of Fatal Fury and Samurai Shodown games.

These could have given the Saturn a list of 1998 games, many of them exclusive, that any console would be envious of, and could have helped the system survive past the Christmas of that year in the West.

Even what came out in the West that year could have brought the punters in with a bit of exposure. Something like Deep Fear would have appealed to the Resident Evil fans of the time whilst providing something different, and yet it remains a PAL only rarity in the West after it was unceremoniously snuck out into retail in small numbers.

Anyone who has listened to the “SegaGuys go Segagaga” podcast will remember that we felt keeping the Saturn alive would have helped the Dreamcast. It’s well known that Bernie Stolars E3 comments and Sega’s premature dropping of the console killed a lot of support from third parties (most notably EA) and from their fanbase. Had the Saturn lived on and had a more natural end to its life, had we not have had the 15 month gap between the last Western Saturn release and the launch of the Dreamcast Sega may have retained more fans and goodwill.

I feel that the Saturn could very much have been supported until 2000, particularly in Japan where they didn’t take too kindly to its sacrifice in favour of the Dreamcast. The support was there in the region, just as it was for the PS1 and N64.

But alas, the big unknown is whether Sega had the funds to stay in the race. They don’t have the pits of money of Microsoft, Sony or even Nintendo did in the above examples, so perhaps keeping the machine on life support might not have been feasible. We also need to consider that the industry of 1997 was very different to that of today, or even the time of the three aforementioned consoles, with no (or at least very little) digital distribution meaning all releases and marketing had a cost involved.

Even then, if Sega had taken their time in delivering their last hope of a system, like Nintendo apparantly did with the Switch, then perhaps they would still be making consoles now, and the Sega Saturn and it’s unique library of wonderful software would have been more widely loved and available than it is now.